As traditional opposition leaders face electoral exclusion, two independent candidates launch an unlikely alliance that could reshape the political landscape or split the anti-government vote

AFRORADAR, June 26, 2025

ABIDJAN — Something’s shifting in Côte d’Ivoire’s political landscape, and you can feel it in the air as the country gears up for its crucial presidential election this October. The usual players are still there, President Alassane Ouattara’s ruling RHDP party maintaining its grip on power while facing off against a fractured but persistent opposition. Yet what’s really catching people’s attention isn’t the familiar political theater we’ve seen for decades, but rather the emergence of something entirely different: a grassroots alliance that’s betting everything on the idea that Ivorians are ready for a completely new approach to politics.

The Alliance for Justice, Nation, and Change, known locally as AJUNA, launched just today with two relatively unknown figures at its helm. But don’t let their outsider status fool you. Antoine Assalé Tiémoko and Vincent Toh Bi Irié represent something that’s been brewing beneath the surface of Ivorian politics for years: a deep frustration with the old ways of doing things, and a genuine hunger for change that goes beyond simply swapping one set of politicians for another.

The Same Old Political Dance

Let’s be honest about where Côte d’Ivoire finds itself politically. For those who’ve been following the country’s journey since independence, the current situation probably feels depressingly familiar. You’ve got Ouattara’s RHDP, which has held power since 2010, facing off against traditional opposition parties like the PDCI-RDA (now led by former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam) and Laurent Gbagbo’s PPA-CI. It’s essentially the same political families that have been trading power and accusations for decades.

The problem is that this familiar dance has become increasingly toxic. The scars from the 2010-2011 post-election crisis, which killed over 3,000 people when Gbagbo refused to accept defeat, still run deep. And now, heading into the 2025 election, the Independent Electoral Commission has essentially eliminated the main opposition contenders from the race. Thiam got disqualified over questions about his nationality, something he’s calling “democratic vandalism.” Gbagbo faces barriers due to his conviction for financial misconduct during the crisis years. Guillaume Soro and Charles Blé Goudé are also out of the running.

What this means is that the opposition, already struggling to present a united front, now finds itself in an even weaker position. The Coalition for Peaceful Alternation in Côte d’Ivoire, which brings together 25 opposition parties, is demanding electoral reforms, but their complaints are falling on deaf ears. Meanwhile, Gbagbo’s PPA-CI has distanced itself from this coalition, highlighting just how fragmented the opposition has become.

The RHDP, not surprisingly, is sitting pretty. They control 139 out of 251 parliamentary seats from the 2021 elections and won 123 out of 201 municipalities in 2023. Whether Ouattara, now 83, decides to run for a fourth term or not, his party has built a formidable political machine that won’t be easy to challenge through conventional means.

Enter the Outsiders

This brings us to today’s big announcement at the Sofitel Abidjan Hôtel Ivoire, where Assalé and Toh Bi unveiled their unlikely partnership. These aren’t household names in Ivorian politics, which might actually be their biggest advantage.

Assalé, 49, comes from a journalism background and currently serves as deputy-mayor of Tiassalé. His movement, called “Today and Tomorrow Côte d’Ivoire,” has been pushing for institutional reforms and serious anti-corruption measures. He’s got a reputation for speaking his mind, particularly when it comes to mobilizing young people to demand transparency in elections.

Toh Bi, 55, brings a different kind of credibility to the partnership. As a former prefect of Abidjan and head of the Aube Nouvelle NGO, he’s been a consistent critic of what many see as Côte d’Ivoire’s rigged electoral system. He’s particularly vocal about the sponsorship requirements that make it nearly impossible for independents to get on the ballot, and the hefty 50 million FCFA candidate deposit (roughly $76,000) that effectively prices out anyone without major backing.

What makes their alliance interesting is that they’re not trying to play the traditional political game. They’re positioning themselves as representatives of a “new Côte d’Ivoire” built around justice, unity, and inclusive governance. These might sound like typical campaign buzzwords, but coming from candidates who don’t have ties to the political establishment, they carry a different weight.

Their platform tackles the issues that actually keep ordinary Ivorians up at night: unemployment (which the government admits is around 25%), rising prices that are squeezing household budgets, and a reconciliation process that many feel has been more about appearances than genuine healing. For a country where a significant portion of the population is under 35, this message of breaking with the past could resonate powerfully.

The Challenge of Breaking Through

Of course, wanting to change the system and actually being able to do it are two very different things. The AJUNA faces some serious practical challenges that could derail their ambitions before they even get started.

The sponsorship system that Toh Bi criticizes so vocally requires candidates to get endorsements from all 17 regions of the country. For independent candidates without established party networks, this is like trying to climb Mount Everest without oxygen. In 2020, only four out of 44 candidate applications made it through the Constitutional Council’s validation process, mostly because people couldn’t meet the sponsorship requirements.

Then there’s the money issue. Assalé’s movement is trying to crowdfund their way to meeting the candidate deposit, which is an interesting experiment in grassroots democracy but also highlights how the system is stacked against outsiders. Even if they raise the money, they still need to build the kind of nationwide organization that can compete with parties that have been building their networks for decades.

Some opposition supporters are already worried that the AJUNA could end up splitting the anti-RHDP vote, potentially making it easier for Ouattara’s party to win. Given how fragmented the opposition already is, with the PPA-CI refusing to join the broader coalition, there’s a real concern that adding more candidates to the mix could backfire spectacularly.

The Appeal of Something Different

But here’s the thing that makes the AJUNA potentially significant: they’re offering something that neither the ruling party nor the traditional opposition can provide, a clean slate. Côte d’Ivoire’s political history is littered with the kind of ethnic and regional divisions that have torn the country apart multiple times. The 2010-2011 crisis wasn’t just about electoral disputes; it was the culmination of decades of identity-based politics that pitted different groups against each other.

The AJUNA’s commitment to operating above these traditional divides could be exactly what many Ivorians are looking for. Early reactions on social media suggest there’s at least some appetite for this approach. People are talking about it as a “pact of conviction” and praising its focus on bringing a “new generation” of leadership to the forefront.

The question is whether this kind of post-ideological politics can actually work in a country where patronage networks and party loyalty have historically determined electoral outcomes. The RHDP’s control over state resources gives them enormous advantages in terms of campaign funding and media access. The opposition’s exclusion from the electoral process has created an atmosphere where many people question whether the election will be free and fair at all.

What This Means for October

The AJUNA’s emergence tells us something important about where Côte d’Ivoire might be heading. Even if Assalé and Toh Bi don’t win, and let’s be realistic about their chances against the RHDP’s political machine, their candidacy represents a growing frustration with politics as usual. The fact that two relative unknowns felt confident enough to form an alliance and challenge the established order suggests that there’s real hunger for change beneath the surface of Ivorian society.

Whether they can translate that hunger into actual votes remains to be seen. They’re betting that enough Ivorians are tired of the same old political families and ready to take a chance on something completely different. It’s a risky gamble, but in a political environment where the traditional opposition has been largely sidelined, it might be the only game-changing move available.

The reality is that Côte d’Ivoire has been stuck in a political pattern that hasn’t served its people particularly well. The country has made economic progress under Ouattara’s leadership, but the benefits haven’t been evenly distributed, and the underlying social tensions that led to past conflicts haven’t been fully resolved. The AJUNA is proposing that the solution isn’t just changing which party holds power, but fundamentally changing how politics works in the country.

As October approaches, Ivorians will have to decide whether they’re ready for that kind of experiment. The AJUNA’s success or failure won’t just determine whether two independent candidates can compete with the established parties, it will signal whether the country is ready to move beyond the political patterns that have defined it for decades.

For now, Assalé and Toh Bi are making their case to a country that’s watching and waiting to see what comes next. Whether they represent the beginning of a new chapter in Ivorian politics or just another footnote in its complex history will become clear soon enough.

What’s your take on the AJUNA’s chances of shaking up Côte d’Ivoire’s political landscape? Share your thoughts and join the conversation about the 2025 election.

AFRO RADAR is a U.S.-based platform covering African politics, culture, and innovation. Follow us for in-depth analysis of the 2025 Ivorian election and beyond.